Carmouche leads all GOP challengers in CD 4

A poll conducted by the Kitchens Group from July 16-21 of 600 likely voters in the Fourth Congressional District shows Democrat Paul Carmouche with a commanding lead to replace retiring Congressman Jim McCrey. Carmouche leads all three Republican hopefuls by double digits. Meanwhile, the poll shows US Senator Mary Landrieu with a solid lead in the district over her potential challenger state treasurer John Kennedy. Full polling memo after the jump.

Executive Summary
Louisiana Congressional District 4

Methodology

Six hundred likely voters in Louisiana Congressional District 4 were interviewed in a random sample taken July 16 - 21, 2008. Respondents were screened for voter registration and their likelihood of voting in the 2008 Presidential election. The sample was balanced according to all known demographic factors. All interviews were conducted by telephone. The margin of error for this survey is ± 4.0%, with a 95% confidence level.

Conclusions

Paul Carmouche begins this campaign with 60% name recognition and a 4-to-1 positive/negative ratio associated with his name. By contrast, the three Republicans candidates, Chris Gorman, John Fleming, and Jeff Thompson, have a name identification ranging between 17% and 33%. They are only known by the core Republican voters.

When paired with each of these three opponents on a trial heat, Paul Carmouche defeats all three, with leads ranging from 13 to 19 points. Also, Independent candidate Chester “Catfish” Kelley holds 5% of the vote in all three match-ups.

In Caddo Parish where Paul Carmouche has served as District Attorney, he leads all three opponents by a 2-to-1 margin, and even at this early stage, he receives support from a majority of voters. In Caddo Parish, Paul Carmouche does very well with both Democratic and Republican voters.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Mary Landrieu wins the support of a solid majority of voters in the fourth Congressional District with 55%, and her opponent, John Kennedy receives support of less than 40% of the electorate.

The political environment in the fourth Congressional District indicates the voters are ready for a new direction in the country. Seventy-six percent (76%) of the voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Sixty-five percent (65%) of the voters say that America cannot afford to stay in Iraq on a long-term basis because of its drain on our economy. A majority of voters volunteer the biggest problem facing the country is jobs and the economy. All this data indicates that the voters believe there is a need for a new direction in this country.

Historically, the voters hold the political party controlling the White House responsible for the problems and elect members of the other party in order to change direction. The political environment plus his personal political popularity indicates that Paul Carmouche has a strong probability of being elected to Congress.